‘A cataclysmic disaster’: How bad relegation would be for the threatened sides
With the relegation fight entering its final two games, Nottingham Forest, Everton, Leeds United and Leicester City all still find themselves battling to stay in the Premier League.
Just four points separate Leicester City who sit second-bottom of the table and Nottingham Forest in 16th in a relegation fight that promises to go down to the wire.
Telegraph Sport’s team of football writers lay out how painful relegation would be for these four sides.
Nottingham Forest
Current position: 15th
Points: 34
Does the club have wage reductions in place?
Most of the Forest squad will have their wages reduced if the club is relegated, though there are understood to be a few exceptions. A number of the signings from abroad could have buy-out clauses in their contracts too.
Would it lead to a firesale and who are their best assets?
Forest could face potential issues with Financial Fair Play after such big spending this season, and there will have to be sales. Morgan Gibbs-White, Brennan Johnson, Danilo, Taiwo Awoniyi and Felipe will have interest.
What would it mean for the manager?
The future of Steve Cooper has been a hot topic for most of the season, with two statements of public support from owner Evangelos Marinakis. Relegation would open up the prospect of him departing, but Forest will also be aware that he got them promoted from the Championship last season.
What would it mean for the owners?
Marinakis has invested over £350 million since his takeover in May 2017 and relegation would clearly be a huge blow. That financial commitment will be crucial in the event of relegation but, despite some outside perception, Forest do have strong foundations.
Are there any other off-field issues that could be impacted?
Forest are hoping to develop the Main Stand at the City Ground and that remains the plan, despite delays caused by numerous wrangles. Marinakis and the senior staff also want to develop the Nigel Doughty Academy training ground.
How disastrous would relegation be?
Forest waited 23 years to end their exile from the Premier League and dropping straight back down would be a bitter disappointment. Marinakis is also determined to establish the club as a stable outfit in the top division so those plans would take a backward step.
Everton
Current position: 17th
Points: 32
Does the club have wage reductions in place?
There is no blanket policy. High-earning players signed on deals several years ago would not have committed to Everton in anticipation of being part of successive relegation battles, and those who recently extended their contracts – such as goalkeeper Jordan Pickford – did not have a relegation clause inserted in their deals, although that was more to do with an exit clause.
So it is unclear exactly which players and staff will be affected by a wage cut, and how many. The anticipation is the biggest earners would have to be offloaded, anyway.
Would it lead to a firesale and who are their best assets?
Inevitably. Although the parachute payments assist those who go down, Everton are already in a precarious financial situation as their wage bill is such that they do not operate on a budget feasible for championship football.
Pickford and Dominic Calvert-Lewin are the most likely to attract immediate interest. Beyond them, who would attract attractive offers? Alex Iwobi has been one of Everton’s better players this season and Amadou Onana has shown glimpses of quality while being a work in progress.
What would it mean for the manager?
Sean Dyche moved to Goodison Park with his eyes open. He seems to have established a good working relationship with director of football, Kevin Thelwell, and their partnership needs to thrive for Everton to enjoy stability.
Dyche has led a side to promotion before and understands The Championship, so logic suggests he will get the chance to rebuild whatever division Everton are in. However, ‘logic’ does not mix with majority shareholder Farhad Moshiri, so who knows what he will do when scapegoat hunting season begins.
What would it mean for the owner?
Evertonians have already concluded the long-standing problems are the board’s fault. That will not change even if Everton stay up. Moshiri has avoided the most vitriolic criticism because of the perceived size of his wallet, the finger being pointed at his decision to retain existing board members and his string of failed appointments on football operations.
Patience snapped long ago and Moshiri is tolerated more than respected by the Gwladys Street now. He says he is pursuing fresh investment. If there are no major changes at Everton this summer, the start of next season is likely to be as toxic as this one. Survival in the next two games will not change that.
Are there any other off-field issues that could be impacted?
Everton insist the stadium project is independent from on-field issues. Externally, there has been a steady stream of speculation that the building work will one day grind to a halt amid suggestions Moshiri’s bankrolling of the project is unsustainable.
To date, there has been nothing to suggest the stadium plans are under threat, the club reassuringly offering monthly updates as another phase of the construction is completed in time for the 2024-25 season. Fresh investment will safeguard the stadium plans. It remains to be seen whether relegation is a deal breaker for interested parties.
How disastrous would relegation be?
It cannot be underplayed. For a club of Everton’s stature to be in this situation – having spent over £500 million in the past seven years alone – smacks of mismanagement on a grand scale. There is never one person solely responsible when an organisation fails – accountability is spread across numerous departments – but the person at the top has self-evidently proven himself hopeless at running a football club.
Financially and emotionally, Everton relegation would be catastrophic. Given the charges against the club for its alleged over-spending a points penalty or a heavy fine may follow, meaning a swift return could not be taken for granted.
Leeds United
Current position: 18th
Points: 31
Does the club have wage reductions in place?
Yes. Every player at the club will have their salary reduced by 50% to 60% should they return to the Championship, with the aim to protect the club from paying Premier League salaries in the second tier. They also have inserted buyout clauses at market value so they do not lose players on the cheap.
Would it lead to a firesale and who are their best assets?
There would be an expectation of the club’s major player assets to be sold to make up the shortfall of being outside of the Premier League and missing out on the broadcast money that comes in. Illan Meslier, Patrick Bamford, Tyler Adams, Brenden Aaronson and Willy Gnonto would together recoup more than £100 million.
What would it mean for the manager?
If Sam Allardyce pulled off a great escape, he will surely fancy a shot at staying on. But it is uncertain what direction it will go if there is a takeover from American consortium 49ers Enterprises. In the Championship they will need to formulate a plan for an immediate return.
What would it mean for the owners?
There is an agreement in place for 49ers Enterprises to buy Leeds this summer but only if they are in the Premier League. Should they get relegated, the Americans could still be interested at a lower price but it raises the possibility of Andrea Radrizzani staying at the club to oversee a rebuild.
Are there any other off-field issues that could be impacted?
Aside from the takeover, Leeds believe they are in a strong position to bounce back should they get relegated. They have strong commercial deals in place and would get parachute payments. Their Academy players would also get the chance in the second tier.
How disastrous would relegation be?
It would be a blow as a takeover would be under threat if they went down. But they have looked like relegation candidates under Jesse Marsch and Javi Gracia – it has not been a false position for them. Should they go down, they will be hoping it will not be another 16 years to wait before returning.
Leicester City
Current position: 19th
Points: 30
Does the club have wage reductions in place?
Leicester’s players will have their salaries slashed between 35 to 50 per cent dependent on wages. The big question is how many of the squad will be sticking around to suffer the reduction.
Would it lead to a firesale and who are their best assets?
Leicester’s two best players, James Maddison and Harvey Barnes, are almost certain to be sold while the seven out of contract are set to leave as free agents.
What would it mean for the manager?
Dean Smith was given eight games to try and save Leicester and is facing a tough task to succeed. His contract expires after that and while he will be under consideration for a longer deal, other targets including Russell Martin and Carlos Corberan may come into the frame.
What would it mean for the owners?
King Power’s commitment remains unwavering and chairman Top Srivaddhanaprabha recently wrote off £194 million of legacy debt. Persistent rumours of King Power seeking outside investment have been dismissed.
Are there any other off-field issues that could be impacted?
Leicester reported pre-tax losses of £92.5 million earlier this year and will seek to offload players to lower their cost base. Leicester have borrowed around £70 million from Australian bank Macquarie.
How disastrous would relegation be?
A complete reset is required regardless of relegation so this may not be the grisly prospect many would think. This squad will be completely different ahead of next season whatever the outcome of their fate.
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