Does sacking a manager improve Premier League survival chances?

Does sacking a manager improve a club’s chances of avoiding the drop?

A record-breaking 12 managers have been axed in the Premier League this season and that tally could rise further as we enter the business end of the campaign – with Steve Cooper and David Moyes under pressure.

Nine of those departures were at clubs fighting at the wrong end of the table: Bournemouth, Wolves, Aston Villa, Everton, Leeds, Crystal Palace, Leicester and Southampton – who have parted company with Ralph Hasenhuttl and Nathan Jones this term – have all looked to harness the new-manager bounce amid a relegation battle.

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Graham Potter’s voluntary departure from Brighton to replace Thomas Tuchel at Chelsea in September – before being axed himself last month – extends the number of managerial changes during this campaign to 13, excluding caretakers – which is three more than any other season in Premier League history.

Does axing manager boost survival chances?

Sky Sports scoured the archives to document every instance when a Premier League team has sacked a manager while in the relegation zone, according to positions listed on Transfermarkt, and the eventual outcome – to uncover whether it improves clubs’ chances of survival.

In total, only 31 of 73 clubs ended up avoiding the drop after axing their manager in the drop zone – which equates to 42 per cent. That means clubs still have a 58-per-cent chance of relegation after axing a manager midseason.

All figures only include the first managerial change while in the relegation zone during respective seasons.

Of course, there are several other factors to consider, such as the position of the club within the relegation zone and what period of the season the managerial change occurred.

Starting with position, unsurprisingly, clubs are far better off axing managers before they hit rock bottom. Since 1995/96, when the league was trimmed to 20 clubs, teams changing manager when sat in 18th have a survival rate of 54.6 per cent, while teams in 19th have a 58 per-cent chance.

However, that ratio plummets to just 15 per cent for teams axing their manager when sat bottom of the table.

What about time period? Well, the same mantra appears here, too: strike early. The table below highlights how survival rates remain largely positive until the turn of the calendar year.

After this point, only two out of 22 clubs since 1992/93 have avoided the drop: Southampton (Ian Branfoot) in 1993/94 and Aston Villa (Paul Lambert) in 2014/15.

Clubs appear to know this, with the majority of changes occurring between October and December.

The chart below clearly visualises how the survival rate dips over the course of a season – with no club ever surviving after axing a manager while in the bottom three beyond the month of February.

The table below merges both position and time into one table since 1995/96 and emphasises the clear correlation between survival and axing a manager early while in 18th or 19th place – but no club has retained top-flight status after sacking a manager while rock bottom after the month of October.

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Winners and losers

Tottenham achieved the biggest bounce in history after they sacked Juande Ramos in October 2008, hoisting from rock bottom to finish the season in eighth spot under Harry Redknapp.

Several teams also enjoyed huge bounces in 2017/18, with Everton rising nine places after axing Ronald Koeman, while Leicester and Crystal Palace jumped eight spots after the departures of Craig Shakespeare and Frank de Boer, respectively. All three exits took place between September and October – the golden period for a manager bounce.

In terms of clubs’ historic success with the manager bounce during precarious times, Nottingham Forest might think twice about relieving Cooper of his duties, having previously sacked Frank Clark in 1996/97 and Dave Bassett in 1998/99 while in the bottom three over the past 31 years – suffering relegation both times.

In contrast, Everton – who sacked Frank Lampard in January – have previously retained their unbroken top-flight status all three times after axing a manager while in the relegation zone. Aston Villa, Crystal Palace and Southampton have also rung the changes this term and survived more time than not.

In summary, the chances of avoiding the drop following a managerial change after the turn of the year stands at just nine per cent – regardless of position. In addition to acting early, clubs should make managerial changes before hitting rock bottom.